Why Invest in Energy?

 

(Published: Fall 1999)

Historically, during times when stocks and bonds have declined, energy prices have risen. Because of this relationship, energy investments can help create a well-balanced portfolio by serving as a hedge against recession and inflation.

What causes this inverse relationship?

When energy prices rise, general inflation in the economy typically increases, causing the inflation-adjusted performance of stocks and bonds to decline. Oftentimes, this leads to a recession. The sharp rise in oil prices in the mid-1970s, which caused inflation to spike to high levels and led to a national recession, is a prime example.

What makes energy prices so important?

Virtually every major industry relies on energy, and a change in energy prices reverberates throughout the economy. Consider a simple loaf of bread: energy is required to sow and harvest the wheat, to grind the flour, to bake the bread, and to transport the bread to the grocery store. A rise in energy prices, then, can affect a single product multiple times.

Which energy resources are the most significant?

Oil and natural gas account for two-thirds of the energy used to power our modern economy, and their role is expected to expand even more in the future.

 

Energy and the Stock Market

Percentage Change in Inflation-Adjusted Prices,
Five-Year Moving Averages

      The stock market typically has had an inverse relationship with energy prices. This graph compares percentage changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average with changes in the consumption-weighted price of fossil fuels. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Dow Jones and Company Inc., and Energy Information Administration.

 



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